Birman To Beat Ose - Are They on to Something?

May 30, 2014 | A story posted today speculates that underdog candidate Igor Birman will pull a stunner and beat fellow Republican ...



May 30, 2014 |

A story posted today speculates that underdog candidate Igor Birman will pull a stunner and beat fellow Republican Doug Ose to become one of two candidates to advance to the November race for California's Seventh Congressional District. 

Ose, along with Birman and Elizabeth Emken are vying to face Freshman Democratic incumbent Dr. Ami Bera, who is presumed to be one of the top two finishers in Tuesday's primary.

Will Republican Igor Birman benefit from
 Democratic voters mischief?
The story, by Jon Fleischman, publisher of FlashReport.org, lays out the argument that Birman will defeat the better-funded Ose based on a number of factors. Fleischman argues that primary voter turnout, which is typically lower, turns out more ideologically motivated voters, that favors Birman who has staked out Tea Partyesque positions.

To bolster his argument, Fleischman further describes Ose, who served in Congress for three terms, as a liberal Republican. He also points out that the Democratic-backed House Majority PAC has targeted Ose, which shows their desire to have a better-financed Bera face Birman in November. 

Conventional wisdom suggests that core-conservative voters will turnout either through mail-in ballots or polls next Tuesday, and that would tend to favor Birman. Ose, who needs to attract independents should he make it to the November election, has been running as a more moderate Republican.

Another factor that could favor Birman, is ironically Democrats voting for him. So-called top-two mischief, where Democrats vote for Birman so that Bera faces a presumably weaker opponent in November. 

Democratic consultant Steve Maviglio admitted to casting his vote for ultra-conservative Republican Tim Donnelly in the gubernatorial race. 

By Tuesday night we will see if Fleischman's theory comes true. If it does, will Birman have Democratic voters to thank?




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