Democratic voters returning ballots in Elk Grove at higher rates than Republicans, Independents

With all ballots being distributed by mail in California, in Elk Grove Democratic voters are returning their ballot at a higher rate through Friday, October 16. 

The information tabulated by Political Data Inc. shows that 12,364 of 103,628 ballots mailed to Elk Grove voters have been completed and returned, for about a 12-percent return rate. There are 91,262 ballots are outstanding.

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On a citywide basis, 15-percent or 7,285 registered Democratic voters have returned their ballots. Republicans have 2,539 ballots for 10-percent of their total registration returned while Independents have returned 2,540 ballots for an eight-percent rate. 

On a district basis, below are the number of ballots returned and percentage of  party total: 

                                   Democratic            Republican          Independent         

District 1                    2,018 (17%)           649 (11 %)          653 (10 %)

District 2                    1,529 (15 %)          704 (9 %)            558 (8 %) 

District 3                    1,563 (14 %)          573 (11 %)          573 (11 %)

District 4                    2,175 (15 %)          613 (10 %)          752 (8 %)

The lag in Republican return rates could be caused by the unpopularity of Donald Trump at the top of the ballot which can influence voting patterns and affect down-ballot Republicans. In local races, there is only one Republican on the ballot so there could be an enthusiasm deficit for Republican voters.  

In Elk Grove's city council races, Democratic return rates for District 1 are the highest of the four districts which could indicate those voters are more quickly coalescing around one of the two candidates, Ali Moua and Darren Suen, both of whom are Democrats. Return rates for Republicans and independents are roughly the same as in the other three districts.

In the District 3 race, where there are three Democrats, one Republican, and one Independent, return rates for Democratic voters are lagging compared to other Democratic voters in other districts. This could indicate Democratic voters are undecided who they will support. 

District 3 Republicans and Independents are returning ballots at roughly the same as rates as the other three districts.   

Given there are only two weeks to the end of voting and over 85 percent of ballots are outstanding in Elk Grove races, expect to see more mailers, telephone calls, and text messages as candidates seek to harvest those voters.  

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