Big 3 Elk Grove 2022 elections: Part II - Hume v. Moreno District 5 Sacramento County Board of Supervisors
Aside from electing several local officials, Elk Grove voters will select new representatives for three significant offices in November - the California State Senate District 8, California State Assembly District 10, and the District 5 Sacramento County Board of Supervisors. We provide an overview of the elections and some voting patterns we see and make a prediction based on current conditions.
A memorable quote from the epic movie Lawrence of Arabia should be considered when reviewing these three contests. That quote was Nothing is Written.
With four months until the general election, anything can happen.
However, as it now stands in the contest between Republican Elk Grove City Councilmember Mr. Pat Hume and Democrat Cosumnes Community Services Director Ms. Jaclyn Moreno, the environment favors Hume.
Here's the reasoning.
Voting results
Throughout the release of vote counts, Hume led by a significant margin. Hume consistently had about 42 to Moreno's 32 present, which was the final percent of votes for each candidate.
Former Elk Grove Mayor Steve Ly finished in third place with 18 percent, and Alex Joe carried 6 percent.
Going into the general election, Hume and Moreno should maintain their respective percentage of voters even as turnout increases. If those trends continue, about 25 percent of the vote is up for grabs.
Ly, formerly a Democrat left the party earlier this year and became a no-party preference candidate, ran what could be described as a more centrist if not slightly pro-business conservative campaign. Could he have siphoned votes from Hume, and with his exit from the race, will these voters migrate to the more conservative pro-business Hume?
In reviewing the precinct results, Moreno did well in the northern areas of the district in Rancho Cordova while Hume nearly swept the entire rural area. But, as with the other Big Three races for Elk Grove, we expect Elk Grove is where the race will be won.
Hume and Moreno about evenly split Elk Grove precincts and Ly performed his best here winning four precincts with the highest being 36 percent. Moreno's highest precinct percentage was 48, while Hume had greater than 50 percent in nine.
Given Hume only needs to pick up about eight to Moreno's 18 percent to reach a majority, he has a more accessible pathway.
National Issues
Although Hume has several advantages going into November, could national issues weigh in on local elections? And will Moreno use them?
Republican Hume has dodged questions important to Democratic voters like does he believe Biden won the presidential election, his view on the January 6 coupe attempt, and more recently, the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Pollsters suggest these could be hot-button issues for Democratic voters and bolster liberal voter turnout in mid-terms, where it typically lags.
Will Moreno leverage Hume's silence on these topics into mailers targeting women and Democratic voters, and most importantly, when he doesn't answer, will voters care? So far, Moreno has not deployed these tactics against Hume.
If Moreno stands any chance, she must remind voters of the Sacramento County Board of Supervisors' role in healthcare and that if Hume is silent on reproductive rights he is anti-choice, which could affect the county's allocation of resources. If Hume wins, he will join ultra-conservative Republican Supervisor Sue Frost on the BOS, which could affect county healthcare funding allocations.
That association with Frost, who suggested the county investigate the Center for Disease Control over masking mandates, could be a pressure point should Moreno decide to pinch Hume.
Money
Hume has had a money advantage throughout the campaign over Moreno and Ly and that will continue.
In his most recent California Form 460 report in late May, Hume reported contribution receipts of $253,000 and a cash balance of $25,596. Since that disclosure, Hume has reported another $26,700 in donations.
In late May, on her California Form 460, Moreno reported contribution receipts of $109,000 and had a cash balance of $100,238. However, she has $62,812 in unpaid bills. Since that report, Moreno has received $8,900 in donations.
Both campaigns should continue fundraising efforts to bolster their efforts. However, the more prominent role going into November will be independent expenditure committees which, by all indications from the Primary, should favor Hume.
The Ly role
Like the race for the California State Senate District Seat between Angelique Ashby and Dave Jones, the role third-place finisher Rafa Garcia's supporters will play a vital role in the November elections. While Garcia's voters are most likely to migrate to Jones, it is less clear who Steve Ly's supporters will cast their votes.
Ly has politically acrimonious relations with Hume and Moreno, and we do not expect him to endorse either.
Ly alleged Hume used an ethnic slur directed at the Hmong community (Ly is of Hmong descent). Following allegations against Ly by many in the 2020 Elk Grove mayoral election that he politically bullied women and did nothing to stop sexual harassment by a campaign worker against Moreno, Ly's wife, Cua Lo-Ly, struck back.
From a strictly qualitative view attending two large fundraisers, Ly effectively enlisted support from several prominent Asian-American business owners and community leaders. Although Ly is unlikely to endorse either candidate and has influence with a large group of Asian voters in Elk Grove and District 5, could he and these business leaders persuade many voters not to vote for this position short of some promise?
Don Nottoli's endorsement?
Hume and Moreno are seeking to replace Supervisor Don Nottoli who was first elected to the Board in 1994. Although Nottoli is a Democrat, he has generally more moderate positions than Moreno has staked out since being elected to the CCSD in 2018.
Should Nottoli offer an endorsement for his replacement, it would be either a shot-in-the-arm for Moreno or cement a victory for Hume.
Our Best Guess on July 11
While Moreno has some non-local issues that she could leverage to bolster her chances, that is probably not enough. Hume will have more money, more independent expenditure committee support, a lower threshold to achieve 50 percent and name recognition.
District 5, is also a more moderate to conservative area of Sacramento County which favors Hume's brand of politics.
For the reasons listed here, we see Hume defeating Moreno by a comfortable margin of at least eight percentage points in November.
And remember, Nothing is Written.
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1 comment
Just what we don't need, Republican Pat Hume on the BOS with fellow Republican Sue Frost. What? Another "Team Crazy!"
EGN did Jaclyn Moreno a favor here. I hope she is paying attention!
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