Odds worsen for Republican Grant's challenge of Bera in California's 7th district

September 16, 2018 |  

In the most recent assessment of California's 7th Congressional district, which includes all of Elk Grove, shows Republican challenger Andrew Grant an almost insurmountable chance of defeating Democratic incumbent Dr. Ami Bera. 

According to the projection of FiveThirtyEight.com, the 7th district is now considered solidly Democratic. Grant's chances of winning have slipped from a 1 in 80 chance on September 6 to the current 1 in 100.

The analysis from FiveThirtyEight predicts Bera will capture 58.6 to Grant's 41.4 percent of the popular vote. That measure was statistically unchanged from the September 6 review.

According to their statistical modeling, the forecast is based "a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors. It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings."

Of note, the projection is also based on presidential approval ratings, which according to their analysis, shows Trump with a 40.2-percent approval rating. The one poll referenced in the model from Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican survey, with Bera at 50-percent and Grant at 41. 

The Cook Political Report, which includes the Bera-Grant contest in its list of competitive races, currently ranks the seat as likely Democratic. Likely is its highest rating in competitive races.

When Grant entered the race last year, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) included him as part of their Young Guns program, which in the past has financially supported viable challengers in competitive districts. According to a June report in TheHill.com the NRCC and the pro-Democratic House Majority political action committee have each booked about $1.5 million in ad reservations in the Sacramento market.

Since that time, with Republican's struggling to maintain their house majorities, they have seemingly redirected resources to those districts where Republicans incumbents are facing legitimate Democratic challenges.