Of foreclosures and the local business climate

Can examining the relationship between Elk Grove foreclosure notices and newspaper ads tell us when things are about to improve? Or will it tell nothing?


Much has written about the national foreclosure crisis and the accompanying recession we find our selves in even though we are not ‘officially’ there yet. Economist are great at telling us we are in a recession well after it has started.

Sometimes they tell us we were in a recession even after recovery has started. In either case, consumers know better on a day to day base when an economy is hurting and there is plenty of hurt going around now.

For those in Elk Grove, we already know we are in a pretty deep recession. Just ask anybody who lost or is about to lose their home.

Just how well we know when things have turned the corner? We can’t rely on economist because they will tell us well after it is common knowledge on the street.

In a very unscientific way, we here at ElkGroveNews.net will take our creative stab at it and work on a rudimentary projection to gauge the health of our local economy.

As ours is primarily a bedroom community, the residential real estate market will by the keystone to our gauge. For most regular people their home represents the most valuable asset that determines wealth.

How wealthy we are (or perceive ourselves to be) in large part dictates our spending habits. Consumer spending fuels the majority of the American economy and if we are not feeling wealthy we won’t be buying.

Even the most casual observer in Elk Grove can see this. Witness the number of business failures like the closing of Elk Grove Ford.

In the next days we will post a gauge that we hope will show micro-trends that indicate the health of our local economy. They will be based on primarily foreclosure activity, local newspaper advertising from locally based merchants and perhaps real estate advertisements.

Again, this is not meant to be a scientific survey but it could shed some light on the direction of our local economy.

Feel free to e-mail us your ideas or post your comments about this study.

Elk Grove – Rancho Cordova – El Dorado connector summit

On Tuesday, August 19 regional and local transportation officials will meet at the Elk Grove city council chambers to discuss the need for a connection between I-5 and Hwy. 50. The meeting will be co-hosted by Elk Grove Vice Mayor Patrick Hume and Sacramento County Supervisor Don Nottoli.

The meeting will discuss the importance of establishing stronger transportation links between the three communities, the financial cost and how it might be funded and the benefits it would bring to the region. The public is strongly encouraged to attend and participate.

The meeting is being sponsored by the Elk Grove Community Connection. For more information, contact Linda Ford at 916-835-5988 or atthefords@frontier.net

Elk Grove lane and road closures

Week of July 20, 2008

ROAD CLOSURES:

E. Stockton Blvd. at Sheldon Rd., from Northbound 99 on-ramp (ramp will be open) to Geneva Point Dr. (North and south bound) June 2, 2008 to August 1st 2008

LANE CLOSURES:

NIGHT WORK
Elk Grove Blvd. between Laguna Springs Dr. and Big Timber Dr.
(West bound) July 6th – July 25th 9:00 pm – 5:30 am

Bruceville Road between Laguna Blvd. and Di Lusso
(North and south bound) June 15th – July 30th
8:30 am – 3:30 pm (Mon. thru Thurs.), 8:30 am to 12:00 pm (Fri.)

Elk Grove-Florin Road between E. Stockton and Elk Grove Blvd.
(North bound and south bound – alternating) June 30th – November 1st 8:30 am – 4:00 pm

Bilby Rd., east of Bruceville Rd.
(East and west bound) May 19th – July 30th 8:30 am – 3:30 pm

Bradshaw Rd. between Kapalua Ln. and Ridge Rock
(North and south bound – alternating) May 12th – August 12th 8:30 am – 3:30 pm

Bruceville Rd. between Bilby Rd. and Boa Nova Dr.
(North and south bound – alternating) May 12th - July 30th 8:30 am – 3:30 pm

Bruceville Rd. at Bilby Rd.
(North and south bound – alternating) July 14th – July 30th 8:30 am – 3:30 pm

E. Stockton Blvd. between Hampton Oaks and Calvine Rd.
(South bound – intermittent) April 20th – August 17th 8:30 am – 3:30 pm

Kent St. between Grove Street and Lark Street
(North and south bound – intermittent) July 2nd - July 30th 8:30 am – 3:30 pm

OTHER CONSTRUCTION ZONES (EXPECT DELAYS):

Grant Line Rd. between Waterman Rd and West Stockton Blvd.
(North and South bound) February 5, 2007 - August 31, 2008 8:30 am – 3:00 pm

Sheldon Road between Lewis Stein Rd. and Power Inn Rd.
(East and west bound – intermittent) February 4th – August 31st 8:30 am – 3:00 pm

TRAFFIC SIGNALS:

NONE

What will the six Promenade restaurants be?

From the start of the long courtship, Elk Grove Promenade developers General Growth have promised us locals the moon, the stars.

So far they have delivered us a few pieces of gravel and broken glass.

First, it was going to be a high-end enclosed regional fashion mall to rival Roseville’s Galleria. We were promised Nordstrom’s, Macy’s and Dillard’s.

Then the project devolved to a drive-thru strip center with a Macy’s and possibly that other high-end fashion retailer, Targets anchoring the 'mall.' This so-called mall is shaping up to bare more resemblance to the new strip mall that occupies the space of the former Florin Mall.

But hey, it has outdoor fireplaces!

General Growth also promised to have six national based sit down restaurant chains on site. For the sake of argument and dreaming, let’s say they try to get some high-end eateries (not that we can afford to eat there) for the masses that congregate around the fireplaces.

For a steakhouse, maybe they’ll have a Morton’s or Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse.

For seafood, a McCormick and Schmidt would be nice.

A high-end Chinese restaurant would be nice. Why not a P.F. Chang's.

For Italians food, at this point we might even settle for an Olive Garden to take the whole family to.

For a general restaurant, why not a Cheesecake Factory. While we’re at it, how about a Claim Jumper?

Any of these would be welcomed additions to Elk Grove’s homogenized national-chain oriented dining scene. Really.

What will we get? If the past history is any indicator, we will likely end up with something more low brow reflecting General Growth’s condescending view of Elk Grove.

For steaks, forget Morton’s or Ruth’s Chris and go for Carl’s Jr. They after all have the Prime Rib $6 Angus burger.

Long John Silver would be an appropriate seafood purveyor. With all the foreclosures and shrinking home equity, who can afford a $50 Maine lobster dinner anyhow?

P.F. Chang’s? No way! Another Panda Express would be a great addition to the food court.

For those seeking a national Italian chain, what could be better than Sbarro?

Forget The Cheesecake Factory or Claim Jumper at the Promenade.To sophisticated for Elk Grove.

Think another 24-hour Denny’s and since we are right near the freeway, how about a Fly J or Pilot Truck Stop.

Sound far fetched?

Given General Growth’s long list of construction delays, broken promises and other various shell games they have played with the people of Elk Grove, don’t by surprised if the sit down restaurants are nothing more than a bunch of fast food joints in their expanded food court.

But hey, those outdoor fireplaces will be great on those cold Elk Grove summer nights!

Weekend incidents included three cases of public intoxication

The most recent weekend was fairly typical in Elk Grove for the city's police. A review of the crime log showed the usual cases of petty theft, domestic violence and d.u.i.'s.

Over the last several months though, it seems every weekend and several nights a week police make arrests for public intoxication. Perhaps this is a function of warm weather.

We all know what a d.u.i. is, but what constitutes public intoxication?

According to the California Penal Code Section 647 (f), public intoxication is an individual

“found in any public place under the influence of intoxicating liquor, any drug, controlled substance, toluene, or any combination of any intoxicating liquor, drug, controlled substance, or toluene, in a condition that he or she is unable to exercise care for his or her own safety or the safety of others, or by reason of his or her being under the influence of intoxicating liquor, any drug, controlled substance, toluene, or any combination of any intoxicating liquor, drug, or toluene, interferes with or obstructs or prevents the free use of any street, sidewalk, or other public way.”

According to Elk Grove police officer Christopher Trim most arrests for public intoxication comes as a result of a service call.

"The primary concerns when encountering an individual who is intoxicated are the well being and care of the intoxicated person and the safety of the community at large. Yes we do have procedures covering dealing with intoxicated persons (both adults and minors)," Trim wrote in response to a question from this organization.

Purse snatchers targeting specific victims?

In an unrelated matter, in the last few weeks there were two cases of purse snatching. Though not uncommon, each of the victims were middle ages women of Asian descent.

In one case, the lady was robbed in her own garage. One must think in this case the crime involved a degree of planning.

Though two incidents hardly make a trend, in San Jose Asian women have recently been targeted victims of purse snatching (listen to report) according to a report by Public Radio International Radio's The World program.
Hopefully these two purse snatching incidents in Elk Grove are the exception and not the start of a new crime trend.

Does Elk Grove need 'fashion police'

Seems the top cop in Flint, Mi. has had it with saggy pants on the youth of his beleaguered city.

According to a story (reg. req.) in the Detroit Free Press:

Flint Police Chief David R. Dicks, who has ordered officers to start arresting people wearing saggy pants that expose skivvies, boxer shorts or bare bottoms.

Would this approach help cops battle the burgeoning youth criminal activity in Elk Grove?

Hard to say it would pass judicial muster. To be sure though, it does give a new meaning to the term fashion police!

'Argus' morphs, launches 'Capital Elector'

Capital Elector regional news site launches as other local media consolidate


Elk Grove-based blogger Jason Daniels, founder of the popular 'Eyes of Argus' blog, has launched an ambitious regional news and information blog called Capital Elector.

Accord to The Elector, as we shall nickname it, in their own words is

Conceptually, capitalelector.com is an internet hybrid. An original online news portal hosting a powerful collaborative blog. The mission of the Capital Elector is to serve as a strong and lively alternate internet news/media source that will provide original blog posts, daily regional (or at times out of region) online news, and original video. The most exciting concept that sets the Capital Elector apart from other websites is the quality of our blogging contributors. (including yours truly elkgrovenews.net!)

Fusing relevant local government news with entertaining authoritative opinion, the Capital Elector represents a bold attempt to raise the online profile of Northern California’s local political scene.

While we doubt that the Bee, Citizen or any other local news organizations the Elector competes with will be going out of business any time soon, The Elector represents the leading edge of how news will be gathered, reported and dissiminated in the future.

We wish The Elector great success in this endeavor.

D.A. Gougherty

When foreclosure ads exceed real estate ads

Elk Grove Citizen foreclosure notices exceed real estate for sale ads


In the Wednesday, July 9 edition of the Elk Grove Citizen there was something few people probably noticed - the number of advertising pages for trustees sales, the foreclosure legal advertisements tucked in the back of the classified section exceeded the real estate for sale ads.

In fact, the foreclosure ads were pretty close to equaling the display ads in this particular edition of The Citizen.

So just what does this mean?

In the very short run, the foreclosure crisis has been a revenue boom for The Citizen (or at least a replacement for the lost real estate glamour shot festooned ads which are crucial to just about every community newspaper in the state.) As required by California law, every trustees (foreclosure) sales must be published three times in an adjudicated newspaper of general circulation in the area where the foreclosure is taking place.

For all foreclosed properties in Elk Grove, that newspaper means The Citizen.

In the long-run though, it indicates trouble make be afoot for publications like The Citizen, which have had some insulation from the woes that have befallen many publications. Just look at what has happened to the likes of McClathy.

Aside from rapidly changing demographics, the general migration of advertising from print publications to the Internet, the loss of revenue from primary sources like real estate ads and general display ads ultimately leads to a cut in news reporting.

The fewer paid ads mean fewer pages available for news. Fewer news pages means less revenue which leads to few reporters which leads to less news reporting which leads to a newspaper devoid of any meaningful copy which leads to less circulation which leads to irrelevance. When that happens, the newspaper become nothing more than rag to publish legal ads which can be done with far smaller staff devoid of a news room.

Hopefully that fate won't happen to The Citizen.

Who supports who

Ever wonder who politicians get their money from?

According to federal disclosure laws, there are some individuals and assorted business from Elk Grove that pop up in the media from time to time make making the contributions.

Below find a partial list of manes and their candidates.

Teri Lawrence - local conservative gadfly who regularly makes anti-communist anti-S.E.E.D. rants on the editorial pages of the Elk Grove Citizen. Lawrence contributed $500 to Rico Oller's failed bid for congress earlier this year. She also gave $1,000 to Bill Jones in his '04 run for the senate.

John Driebe - The owner of Elk Grove Nissan has contributed thousands to various Republican candidates and auto dealer trade groups. Driebe donated $1,000 to Rudy Giuliani. Hedging bets, Driebe most recently contributed $500 to John McCain.

Marielle Tsukamoto - well-known Elk Grove educator recently contributed $250 to Doris Matsui.

More later.

Maestas launches new campaign website

http://electkatherine.com/