With Hume and Moreno headed toward a November showdown, what happens with Ly supporters?


 
 
As last week's vote tallies demonstrated, the race for the District 5 seat of the Sacramento County Board of Supervisors will be extended into November.

Even though Republican Elk Grove City Councilmember Pat Hume maintains a commanding lead over Democrat Cosumnes Community Services District Director Jaclyn Moreno, he could not surpass the 50-percent threshold in the June primary for an outright victory. As of June 17, Hume had 42 percent with 19,584 votes, a full 10 percent ahead of second place finisher Moreno who had 14,724 votes.

Even though the results are not final, it is evident Hume will finish first, and Moreno will come in second. So the question for both candidates is how to gain enough votes between now and November.

Typically the other candidates would urge their supporters to vote for one of the other top two finishers. That is unlikely to happen given third-place finisher former Elk Grove Mayor Steve Ly's fraught relationship with Hume and Moreno.

Picking up extra votes to hit 50 percent will be especially difficult for Moreno. Not only does she have a more significant vote shortfall to overcome, but she also lags Hume's fundraising.

Moreno could launch a substantial get-out-the-vote operation which could narrow the margin. In political timelines, between now and early October, when ballots start arriving, is an eternity, and outside events could alter the trajectory of the race.

Short of that, it will be noteworthy to see if and how Hume and Moreno try appealing to the 18 percent of voters who supported Ly and the six percent who supported Alex Joe. Picking up the support of nearly one in four voters who were not with Hume or Moreno will be the deciding factor in this race.

Even though Ly is out of this race, he could hold sway with this block of voters and still have his presence felt in November. 
 
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