Davis' Internal Poll Shows Him Well Ahead of Elk Grove Mayoral Competitors

In a story posted here last week that showed Elk Grove Mayor Gary Davis polled behind challenger Elk Grove Planning Commissioner Kevin Spease, it was noted that the Mayor probably had internal polling showing different results.

As it turns out, at about the same time our unscientific survey was conducted Davis commissioned an internal poll, and its findings were a favorable indication of his reelection prospects. 

In a landline and cell phone poll conducted between April 28 and May 5 of 400 likely voters by Jonathan Brown of Sextant Strategies & Research, showed the following results:

  • Davis is favorably viewed by 72-percent of respondents and 11-percent unfavorable (see question above, click to enlarge)
  • 74-percent said they felt Elk Grove is headed in the right direction
  • Davis leads Spease 68 to 13-percent; Joel Broussard was not mentioned    

Acknowledging the survey was conducted with likely primary, the pollster's report said "these results are highly suggestive of the November electorate for several reasons. The likely primary voter sample includes 55-percent of likely general election voters. Because of Davis’ overwhelming lead, the remaining voters would need to be diametrically opposed to primary voters’ views on Davis and the direction of the City for us to consider that he was much risk of losing."

The report noted youth participation is lower in primaries, and this would aid Davis. In the general election participation of voters younger than 35 doubles and this group favor Davis over Spease by 64 to 22-percent, and 84-percent of them believe Elk Grove is heading in the correct direction.

The report concludes "It would be unusual for the views of the younger general election voters who are not likely primary voters to be significantly different from those of their peers. Elk Grove voters are poised to keep Davis in office for another two years."

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