Going into the polls, California's 10th District is rated toss-up and could determine who controls Congress

November 6, 2018 |

In the four previous election cycles, TV viewers in the Sacramento TV market were barraged by attack ads waged against Dr. Ami Bera for California's 7th Congressional District. This year Democrat Bera seemingly has an easier path to reelection, so TV viewers have barely seen ads for that race.

Instead, TV viewers in this market have been subjected to a whole slew of attack and standard political ads in the race for California's 10th Congressional District between incumbent Republican Congressman Jeff Denham and Democratic challenger Josh Hardin. The 10th District includes much of Modesto and portions of Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties.

Denham, like Bera, represents a highly competitive district that has experienced close races over the last several cycles. Because the district is held by a Republican in a year where Democrats are expected to make gains, the National Republican Congressional Committee has abandoned Bera's challenger Andrew Grant and has directed its financial resources to districts like the 10th that Democrats now hope to flip.

According to the well-respected Cooks Political Report, the district is one of 29 toss-up congressional districts currently held by Republicans. By comparison, there is only one Democratic-held congressional seat that is rated as a toss-up.

The forecasting site FiveThirtyEight.com forecasts that Harder has a 7 in 9 chance of winning while the district is rated as being slightly more Republican than the national average by 0.08-percent. Their forecasting model says Harder will win 52.4-percent of the vote.

Depending on how voting patterns emerge going from east to west in the United States later today, control of  House of Representatives could well be determined by several competitive in California including the 10th district.  


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