Fact check: Do Californians really cool on ballot measures as the election approaches?
https://www.elkgrovenews.net/2019/10/fact-check-do-californians-really-cool.html
In 2020, California voters will be asked to weigh in on some of the most contentious and consequential issues facing the state — criminal justice reform, rent control, school construction funding and inequality. For those hoping to make sense of the deluge of political polls and they’re likely to see over the next year, consider this a handy user guide.
A new
CalMatters analysis of survey data from the Public Policy Institute of
California found, if history is a guide, that voters and other poll watchers
can expect a few things.
- Support
generally sags. The public’s net support for ballot initiatives (that is,
how much public support exceeds opposition) declined by an average of
about 7 percentage points each month. An equivalent change would be an
initiative polling with 53% in support to 47% against in October, but then
narrowly losing in November.
- There are
exceptions. While 71% of the measures analyzed became less popular as
election day approached, voters warmed to the other 29%.
- It depends on
the measure. Voters have been quicker to sour on measures that tinker with
education policy and raise taxes, but more steady on bond measure and tax
decreases.
- It also depends
on the election. The biggest drop off in net support for a measure
occurred during low-turnout, non-presidential years.
Our
number-crunching was motivated by a simple question: When is a good poll still
bad news?
For
years, a fairly consistent majority of Californians polled by the institute has
backed hiking property taxes on longtime commercial landowners.
The
concept, known in policy shorthand as “split roll,” would require businesses
to pay property taxes based on the current market value of their buildings and
land, rather than on the initial purchase price. In short, it would be a
massive tax increase on business, raising billions for local school districts
and governments.
But that
sizeable base of support appeared to take a hit earlier this month.
An October poll found that only 47%
of likely voters support the idea of nixing the tax benefit for businesses,
compared to 45% who oppose the idea. The remaining 9% weren’t sure.
On its
face, that might not seem like such a bad thing for split roll supporters - public sector unions who would benefit from an extra $7 billion to 11 billion in estimated revenue and
other progressives.
But
according to many analysts and commentators, that 2% margin of support is
actually awful news if you favor the November 2020 proposal.
That’s
based on a bit of conventional wisdom, widely held among the types of people
who fixate on such things, that support for ballot measures always declines the
closer you get to election day.
Since
1998, the institute has asked Californians it deems “likely voters” about 80
ballot measures.
An
examination of how opinion on each of those ballot measures has shifted over time—from
polls as early as a year out from election day to the certified ballot box
results themselves—shows that the conventional wisdom generally holds up.
The vast
majority of ballot measures analyzed saw a decline in public support as
election day approached. There were exceptions and the range was enormous, but
the average worked out to 6.6% percentage points per month.
Why? The
most common theory comes down to timing, said Dean Bonner, a survey director at
the institute. A new policy proposal may sound good on paper.
Then the attack
ads and editorializing begins.
“Wherever
a ballot measure campaign starts off, it’s starting off without there being a
‘No’ campaign,” he said.
A blog
post from the California Chamber of Commerce gleefully made that point about
the new survey on split roll, which it calls the “largest tax hike in history”:
“Support
for a split roll initiative has dipped below 50%, even before facing a serious
opposition campaign — and without any mention in the survey question that the
initiative would alter Proposition 13, a landmark law most voters typically
associate with popular residential tax protections.”
Lack of a
counter-campaign may help to explain why some measures fare better over time.
Support
for bond measures, for example, tends to remain relatively steady through an
election season. On average, support for these measures has actually inched up
slightly. While there are plenty of interests willing to spend big in support
of new financing for public infrastructure, with the exception of small
government groups like the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, there isn’t a
huge anti-debt lobby.
No
surprise then that bonds also have a disproportionately good track record at
the ballot box. While only 35% of the 80 ballots analyzed ended up passing, 82%
of bond measures were approved.
Another
potential explanation why most ballot measures drift downward in the polls is
the “cautious voter” theory. If voters aren’t sure about a big change to state
law, the thinking goes, they’ll err on the side of caution and default to the
‘no.’
But
without asking individual voters, it’s harder to say whether that actually
happens. Ballot measures that elicited more shoulder shrugging in surveys prior
to election day weren’t any more or less likely to see their support drop off —
or to fail on election day.
All this
might seem ominous to split roll supporters, but they do have two reasons to
hold out hope.
First,
ballot measure polls seem to overshoot the final election result the most
during off-year elections. During midterm primary elections and other off-year
contests, the typical measure saw a drop off in its net popularity by more than
10 percentage points. But in the run-up to the general election, particularly
during presidential years, the decline was much more modest.
Second:
there are exceptions to every rule. Nearly a third of ballot measures actually
became more popular over time.
CalMatters.org is
a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and
politics.
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