With two weeks until the March 3 primary, ballot return rates in Elk Grove District 1 & 3 are low

For the four candidates in District 3 and two candidates in District 1 of the Elk Grove City Council races, mail-in voting patterns for California's March 3 primary could help candidates develop get out and get the vote strategies. 

First, let's start with registration information for each of the two districts as compiled by PoliticalData.com

                           Democratic      Republican     Independent

District 1               10,933               5,960              6,785
District 3               10,577               6,888              5,232
As of February 17, with two weeks to go until voting closes on the March 3 primary, ballot return rates are four-percent for each district. Even though more Democratic and Independent ballots have been returned, Republican participation rates are slightly higher. 

Primary voter turnout compared to the general election is usually less even in the presidential election years, but the results are worth monitoring as a gauge for the November general election. Given Democratic voters in Elk Grove still have a competitive presidential primary as it enters California, lower participation rates than Republican voters, who have very few primary choices on the ballot, could be foreboding.  

If most voters cast their votes along party lines in the District 3 city council race in November, for example, the fight will be for the independent block. Also, will either of the two Democratic and one independent candidate make an appeal for Republican voters against the one Republican in the race?  

In District 1, notwithstanding their stances on the California Northstate University issue, the two Democratic candidates in the race to date will not only be fighting for their party voters, but Independents and Republicans are up for grabs. This could all change if say, an Independent or Republican candidate enters the races and takes a strong stance opposing the California Northstate University project. 

All bets would be off the table because there is a good chance Democratic and many Independents could vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, but when they go down-ballot, they could select a Republican or Independent candidate for the city council. Let's not forget, when an issue like California Northstate University percolates, party labels will not matter, but a candidate's stance on a hyper-local issue will. 

Single issue candidates, even those without substantial financial support, at a minimum have a significant effect on results and even win elections on occasion. 

District 1

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District 3

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