5 for 5 - With 5 candidates chances are District 5 Sacramento County Board of Supervisor's race will be determined in November; Sue Frost factor?

Will controversies surrounding Sacramento Supervisor Sue Frost be a factor
in the District 5 Board of Supervisor's race? |  

With Sacramento County Supervisor Don Nottoli's departure from the office he will have held for 28 years, it was inevitable there would be high interest in the District 5 position. Not surprisingly, five candidates are hoping to replace Notolli.

Four of those candidates, Pat Hume, Alex Joe, Steve Ly, and Jaclyn Moreno, are Elk Grove residents, and the fifth is Isleton resident Vernon David Swart. A sixth candidate, Gary Davis of Elk Grove, entered and quickly dropped out of the contest.

Under California election laws, if any candidate receives 50-percent plus one vote during the primary, they will win the office. If no candidate reaches that mark, the top two finishers will face off during the November general election.

Although anything can happen during an elections cycle, the top three candidates most likely to advance are Hume, Ly, and Moreno. All three held or recently held elected office in Elk Grove, the largest voting block in District 5. 

Democratic candidate Moreno has broad support from labor and the county's party machinery, while business and real estate development interests back Republican Hume. In addition, Ly, who is Hmong-American, formerly a Democrat but now a no party preference, has developed an extensive national fundraising network with Hmong-Americans that could help him fund a competitive campaign. 

Swart reported less than $1,000 in fundraising activity last year, and Joe has registered with Sacramento County elections but has not filed any candidate finance statements. In addition, swart has started a website that seeks donations while Joe does not appear to have a website or social media presence. 

Even though they face long odds, Joe and Swart always have a chance to pull an upset - anything is possible in politics - just ask former U.S. representatives Eric Cantor or Joe Crowley. Nonetheless, it is more likely that they will be spoilers for the other three candidates.  

If they can combine for 12-percent of the popular vote, Swart and Joe will make it difficult for the other three to surpass 50-percent. With new campaign contribution limits, the two eventual candidates will face a long, difficult slog to the November general election. 

The Sue Frost question

Yesterday Sacramento County Supervisor came under fire for documented links to organizations classified by the Southern Poverty Law Center as hate groups, including the Proud Boys. Even though Frost said through a spokesperson she was unaware that the groups were linked to hate groups, she only decoupled from various groups after the links were exposed yesterday on social media. 

For months, Frost has been kept at arm's length from her four board of supervisors colleagues, including the newest member, Rich Desmond. During yesterday's board of supervisors meeting, several people during public comment said that supervisors Desmond, Patrick Kennedy, Don Nottoli, and Phil Serna should censure Frost.

While Frost maintains a group of supporters, she appears to be casting a pall on the board and is quickly gaining a negative reputation. Could her actions affect the other supervisors' races, especially for District 5? 

With District 5 an open seat, how will the two partisan candidates - Hume and Moreno, react? Will Frost's presence be used as a bludgeon?

As the board's only Republican, during less turbulent times Frost would probably endorse Hume, who would undoubtedly accept the support. But now, how would Hume react to a Frost endorsement?

As a mainstream Republican, Hume has expressed concern in a Trump-style there are good people on both sides type statement about the national political divisions. However, he has not condemned the January 6 U.S. Capitol insurrection that tried to stop the certification of the presidential election. 

If Frost endorsed Hume and he accepted it, he could be vulnerable to guilt by association to hate groups accusations, which might help with a segment of voters. Hume could refuse a Frost endorsement and avoid any association with her self-generated controversies but doing so could hurt him with the large pool of Republican voters who share views of Frost and Trump. 

In a sense, if the Frost issue was leveraged against Hume, he could be forced to take sides. Hume would undoubtedly condemn violent hate groups, but is he willing to take a stance against Frost and Trump? 

It is unlikely Forst will be silent in the coming months, which could only add fuel to political fires. We'll learn in due time if Frost's controversies effect, if at all, her fellow Republican Hume.  


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K of EG said...

Go Pat Hume and Sue Frost! Hume is a Proud Boy. Don't let his canoodling with liberals fool you. Better then that ANTIFA woman Jaclyn Moreno! Jaclyn Moreno wants to defund the police and is part of that extreme left group Resist in Elk Grove. Same group that teacher in Natomas belongs to. Defund the police such rubbish! And that Steve Ly he just wants diversity and multicultural events in our town. Rubbish too!

Connie said...

Original Elk Grove City Council member Sophia Scherman used to boast that the "very young" Pat Hume was her protégé and that she one of the reasons he was elected to the Elk Grove City Council after serving as her appointed city of Elk Grove Planning Commissioner.

Is BOS fellow Republican Sue Frost Hume's newest "woman behind the man?" Let's hope so!

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