Singh-Allen makes mayoral electoral history and other footnotes - Nothing is written for 2024

In one way, Elk Grove Mayor Bobbie Singh-Allen made history with her reelection. Since 2012 when Elk Grove voters directly elected their mayor, all winners in competitive races won a plurality of votes.

That changed this year.

With only two competitors for mayor, which was another first, Singh-Allen easily won reelection with a majority of voters. Singh-Allen captured 65 percent for 35,334 votes to Brian Pastor's 18,574 votes.

Even though Singh-Allen won with a clear majority, there are other takeaways. First was Pastor's virtually nonexistent campaign.

With no funding and an invisible campaign, Pastor still captured 35 percent of the electorate who selected a virtually unknown candidate over a known commodity. Had Pastor raised some money, increased his visibility, or had a viable third candidate entered the race, would Singh-Allen's margin have been as large, or perhaps, even lost?

Of course, it is an academic conversation, but looking forward to 2024, should Singh-Allen run into some controversy as former Mayor Steve Ly did when he sought his third term, things could be different.

There is another footnote to this mayoral election - turnout.

Unlike in 2020, when there was controversy in the mayoral race, there were fewer voters this year. In 2022 53,095 voters participated, but in 2020 there were a record 83,246 voters.

Some might argue it was because 2020 was a Presidential election. However, in the 2018 election between Ly, Darren Suen, and Tracie Stafford, there were 58,451 votes cast.

Going back to the 2016 mayoral election, there were 68,721 votes, and in 2012 saw 60,291 votes. When former Mayor Gary Davis was unopposed in 2014, there were only 30,105 votes submitted.

By a clear margin, 2022's mayoral election saw the lowest participation rate in the competitive races. 

So while Singh-Allen can rest for some time, the historical data and the possibility of a multi-candidate race or unforeseen controversies indicate nothing is written for 2024. 

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Capt. Benjamin Willard said...

There are two people Madame Mayor Singh-Allen ought to keep her eyes over her shoulder for. The first would be Ms. Jaclyn Moreno who was beat to the punch in 2020 to challenge the former Mayor.

The more likely challenger is CCSD-Director elect Ms. Angela Spease. She'll be mid way through her first term and it would a ripe opportunity for her and her husband to be Elk Grove's ultimate power couple.

D.J. Blutarsky said...

Our esteemed Madam Mayor will likely tread water in her current position until Rep. Doris Matsui's term expires in 2025. Between now and then, many will ride her coattails to local stardom while Madame diligently works to build her base, money ties, and media exposure. Elk Grove proud!

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