Johnson crime stats called 'flawed'

In their endorsement of a second term for Elk Grove City Council Member Gary Davis yesterday, the Sacramento Bee cited opponent Jimmie Johnson's major campaign issue, escalating crime rate.

The heart of Johnson's candidacy is that crime is out of control. But his argument is undermined by flawed statistics.

He has claimed that violent crime has tripled in Elk Grove in the past four years. But he bases that on a number for 2006 that doesn't include crimes committed in Elk Grove before its own police department started on July 1 that year. According to the figures reported to the attorney general's office that Johnson cites, violent crime did rise 31 percent from 2007 to 2008, before dropping 8 percent in 2009.

Last week EGN looked into Johnson's claims and found that indeed, they are based on flawed data.

As the Bee's endorsement pointed out, Johnson's base numbers are from 2006. As many readers will recall, that was the year the city established its own department. Prior to that police services were provided under contract by the Sacramento County Sheriff's Department (SSD).

In an e-mail correspondence with Elk Grove Police Department Chief Robert Lehner noted that the statistics compilation from 2006 was split between the SCSD and the EGPD. As a result of this split, the Elk Grove statistics probably were not separately reported by the SSCD.

Lehner wrote:

There is no complete or valid data available for 2006. EGPD made a partial report (less than half year) to the FBI but exactly what period of time was covered and what part of the data was separately reported by Sacramento County is not known. My guess is that there are both omissions and duplicates and, to my knowledge, Sacramento County never separately reported statistics for Elk Grove, at least not to the FBI as a separate police agency which is how data is normally reported. Because EGPD created an entirely new reporting system, including the installation of new computer software for that purpose, I would place no credibility or reliability in any data submitted for 2006, partial or otherwise.

EGN e-mailed Johnson last week inviting his comment on the matter or to cite sources (and or interpretation) other than the EGPD, FBI and California State Attorney General's office. As of this morning, Johnson has not responded.