ranks California's 7th congressional district as solidly Democratic; could influence Elk Grove races

September 5, 2018 |  

While California's 7th Congressional District has been one of the country's most competitive districts over the last 10 years, this year could be much different according to the analysis on a popular website.

In the projection of, the 7th district is now considered solidly Democratic. The seat is currently occupied by three-term incumbent Democratic Dr. Ami Bera who is being challenged by Republican Andrew Grant.

According to their statistical modeling, the forecast is based "a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors. It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings."

Of note, the projection is also based on presidential approval ratings, which according to their analysis, shows Trump with a 39-percent approval rating. The one poll referenced in the model from Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican survey, with Bera at 50-percent and Grant at 41. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts Bera will capture 58.1 to Grant's 41.9 percent of the popular vote. As for chances of winning, the study shows Grant has a 1 in 80 chance of winning the district. 

The Cook Political Report, which includes the Bera-Grant contest in its list of competitive races, currently ranks the seat as likely Democratic. Likely is its highest rating in competitive races.

As it relates to Elk Grove, if Grant fails to generate interest and turnout among Republicans, it could influence the city council and mayoral races, especially the city council contests.

Three-term Republican Pat Hume is being challenged by Democrat Andres Ramos for the District 2 seat. Although Hume has a superior cash advantage, Ramos has been aided by fellow Democrat Elk Grove Mayor Steve Ly, and a large turnout of so-called blue wave voters could make the race closer than expected.

Similarly, although Stephanie Nguyen and Darren Suen, both Democrats could suffer from low Republican turnout and high blue wave voters.

Nguyen, who has aligned herself with council colleagues and Republican Hume and Steve Detrick, is being challenged by fellow Democrat and Ly ally Orlando Fuentes for the city's District 4 seat. Fuentes, like Ramos, is being supported by Ly.

Suen is challenging Democrats Ly and Tracie Stafford for mayor and like Nguyen has aligned himself with Detrick and Hume. A highly motivated Democratic turnout could benefit Ly or Stafford.

Nguyen and Suen have positioned themselves as more moderate, conventional Democrats. As recent history has shown in several high profile races, especially as seen in Florida's Democratic gubernatorial primary race Democratic voters seem to be moving toward more progressive candidates with positions similar to those staked out Ly and especially Stafford.

In about two months time, Elk Grove residents will know what, if any, influence the blue wave will have on the composition of the city council.         

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