Democratic voters returning recall ballots slightly faster than Republican, Independents

In what might be an in-the-moment favorable sign for Gov. Gavin Newson, Democratic voters are returning ballot at a faster rate in California's gubernatorial recall election.

According to information compiled by Political Data Inc., as of August 28, of the 10.3 million ballots sent to registered Democratic voters statewide, 1.9 million or 19-percent have been returned. Most Democratic voters are expected to vote against the recall.

Of the 6.5 million statewide Republican voters, 844,235 ballots have been returned for a rate of 12-percent. The all-important Independent and registered third party voters, which are larger than Republicans, have returned 779,309 ballots or 16-percent of their 6.5 million registrants.  

Democratic voters have accounted for 54-percent of the ballots returned. 

The most recent vote survey of voters who have voted or intend to posted by shows Newsom leading with 57-percent of voters rejecting the recall. An amalgamation of the polls surveyed by FiveThirtyEight shows Newsom with a narrow lead of 50.6 votes to retain him.

If voters decide to recall Newson, under state law, the candidate with a simple plurality will win the replacement race. Current polls show Republican right-wing radio pundit Larry Elder leading the candidate pool with 21-percent of the replacement vote. 

Voting for the election concludes on September 14.  

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