Commentary: The California GOP’s decline and fall
https://www.elkgrovenews.net/2019/12/commentary-california-gops-decline-and.html
The very
rapid decline of California’s Republican Party — from near-dominance in the
1980s and early 1990s to its current irrelevance — has been one of the state’s
most dramatic political events.
Thirty
years ago, in 1989, Republicans were on a roll in California, to wit:
—GOP
candidates dominated the state’s presidential elections, including the election
and re-election of Ronald Reagan.
—Republican
George Deukmejian was winding up two terms as governor and would soon be
succeeded by another Republican, Pete Wilson.
—Democratic
registration, once close to 60%, had dropped to below 50% while the GOP’s share
had climbed to nearly 40% and leading Democrats were openly worried about
becoming the state’s minority party.
The roll
continued into the early 1990s as Wilson won re-election in 1994, his party
captured several other statewide offices and Republicans won a one-seat
majority in the state Assembly.
And then
the bottom dropped out. Republicans now claim fewer than 24% of the state’s
registered voters, are frozen out of every statewide office, hold just 7 of the
state’s 53 congressional districts, have seen Democrats capture three-quarters
of the Legislature’s seats, and have lost every state presidential election
since 1998.
The
dramatic turnaround was a convergence of economic, demographic and cultural
factors, along with years of denial by Republican leaders.
One major
factor was the end of the Cold War, which led to the near-collapse of Southern
California’s defense industry, a severe recession and then to an out-migration
by hundreds of thousands of aerospace workers.
Simultaneously,
the region saw a wave of in-migration, primarily from Latin America, that
sharply altered its cultural ambiance and political orientation.
What had
been a largely conservative, pro-Republican region morphed into a more liberal,
Democratic-voting region. The transition was accelerated by Proposition 187,
championed by Wilson as he sought re-election in 1994, which would have denied
public benefits to undocumented immigrants.
Initially,
Democratic politicians aligned themselves with it. The Legislature’s Democratic
majority denied driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants, for example, and
Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein accused her 1994 Republican
challenger, Michael Huffington, of being soft on illegal immigration and
advocated hardening the state’s border with Mexico.
Although
Proposition 187 was blocked in the courts, it awakened political activism
within the state’s fast-growing Latino population and eventually, the
Democratic Party benefited handsomely.
As
California’s white population declined, it also underwent something of a
cultural change. Crime, which had been a potent political issue for
Republicans, declined in importance, while support for abortion rights and gay
rights and environmental protection increased — especially in key suburban
communities.
GOP
registration dropped, while that of Democrats remained fairly static and the
ranks of “no-party-preference” voters swelled. They now outnumber Republicans
and tend to back Democrats in partisan contests.
So is
California now permanently a blue state, just as it once was red, or at least
purple?
Writing in the National
Review, conservative
California historian Victor Davis Hanson sees a tinge of magenta at the end of
the tunnel.
“After
three decades of radical progressivism, California residents are tiring of
one-party straitjacket rule,” Hanson writes. “The hard-liberal order normalized
massive power blackouts, the nation’s highest array of taxes, the forest
mismanagement that fuels deadly fires, an epidemic of homelessness in major
cities, eroding schools, ossified infrastructure, and soaring energy costs.”
He’s right
about many Californians’ concerns over these and other issues. But it’s highly
unlikely that they will turn Republican in reaction — especially given the
abject unpopularity of President Donald Trump.
Rather,
discontent is fueling the emergence of Democratic subfactions which duel for
dominance, leaving the GOP irrelevant for at least the foreseeable future.
CalMatters
is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how
California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more stories by Dan
Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary
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