In the three candidate race with current ballot returns, could Michelle Kile pull the upset in Elk Grove City Council District 2?

With three viable candidates - two Democrats and one Republican, the current ballot return rates suggest the race for Elk Grove City Council District 2 is very close. Those three candidates are Republican Michelle Kile and Democrats Rod Brewer and Felipe Martin. 

According to ballot information compiled by Political Data Inc., only 21 percent of ballots have been returned as of Friday, November 4. What is significant is the raw number of ballots returned.

Democratic voters have returned 22 percent of their ballots for 2,755 votes. Republican voters, which have fewer registered voters in the district, have 2,007 ballots returned for a rate of 24 percent. 

Notwithstanding undervotes on down-ballot races like District2, this is a favorable trend for Kile. While there are more Democratic votes, it is fair to say most of the 2,700 plus ballots will be split in some ratio for Brewer and Martin, while Kile will probably receive the majority of Republican votes.

Even though they are participating at the lowest rate of 16 percent, the 1,308 independent votes already submitted are in play for all three candidates. How these votes break could make the vote between Brewer, Kile, and Martin close and determine who will be the next city council member.  

Even though she has been outspent by Brewer and Martin, these numbers suggest that it is not unreasonable for Kile to score an upset victory in District 2.  

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