Part III - With Six Months To Go, Davis and Hume Have No Announced Opponents

Davis and Hume: Cash and Issues will Determine Success

Although Elk Grove City Council members Gary Davis and Pat Hume have served together for four years, their paths to reelection are likely to be much different. In our view the key to winning another term for both will boil down to having enough cash to mount a campaign and policy success.

Hume

When Pat Hume challenged incumbent Rick Soares to the Elk Grove City Council District 2 seat in 2006, he had high name recognition that came from serving as Sophia Scherman’s appointee on the Elk Grove Planning commission for the city’s first six years of existence. On top of that, Hume enjoyed a favorite son status given his family’s deep roots in the community.

Hume was able to leverage his planning commissioner position and his favorite son status into a very successful cash machine that raised in excess of $210,000. Much of that money came from real estate developers like Reynen & Bardis.

By comparison Soares reported $118,000 in campaign funding with $82,000 coming from a personal loan he made to his campaign. Soares, who had become quite unpopular by 2006, had never been a prolific fundraiser.

Backed by his good name and overwhelming money advantage, Hume was able to carve out a non-majority (40%) win in a four way race.

The current money outlook for Hume is not nearly as favorable this year. According to his latest statement, Hume has a cash balance of $19,000 having raised a $13,000 in 2009 with liabilities of $25,000. Hume’s largest contributor was e-Tran operator MV Transportation who donated $5,000.

This year should not be a bountiful one for Hume given the current condition of the real estate and the builders who showered him with cash in 2006. One of Hume largest benefactors, Reynen & Bardis has gone bankrupt.

With respect to issues to run on, Hume has seemingly hung his whole agenda on the sphere of influence (SOI). The question for Hume is whether or not the SOI will hang like an albatross around his neck.

The recent removal of the Cosumnes River floodplain from the SOI was a major defeat for Hume and a major victory for fellow council member Gary Davis who proposed the removal. With the exception of his advocacy of the SOI, Hume doesn’t really have any major individual accomplishment to point to.

Hume’s SOI debacle drew ire from a wide swath of differing local interests that he will have trouble overcoming. It is never good for an incumbent to be compared to Herbert Hoover vis-à-vis placards calling the proposed SOI area “Humeville.”

The SOI could also hamper fundraising efforts. What is to keep the property owners in the SOI area and residential real estate developers who Hume seemed to be advocating for, from recruiting another candidate?

Ironically if real estate interests recruit another candidate more to their liking, i.e. someone who can get the SOI through LAFCO, and one or two other candidates enter the race, Hume’s incumbent advantage might be enough to squeak out a win. This is after all the how Hume’s mentor, Mayor Sophia Scherman, has been able to cling to her city council seat.

Outside of a multi-candidate field or facing just one really weak opponent, the count-down on the end of the Hume era may have already started.